Epidemiological models of COVID-19 forecast the number of future cases and deaths.
Quantifying the accuracy of these models can help to inform public health decisions.
scores the predictive ability of publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological models on the COVID-19 Forecast Hub
Our scoring system uses the posted forecast cumulative distributions to compute the log-likelihood for held-out COVID-19 positive cases and deaths.
Scores are updated continuously as new data become available, and model performance is tracked over time.
The leaderboard considers predictions from July 4th, 2020 and beyond, and includes only those models covering at least half of that timespan.